Next Generation Software for Data-driven Models of Space Weather with Quantified Uncertainties | 20 519

Opportunity Information: Apply for 20 519

The National Science Foundation (NSF) grant opportunity titled "Next Generation Software for Data-driven Models of Space Weather with Quantified Uncertainties" is a discretionary research and development funding program aimed at modernizing how space weather prediction models are built, run, and evaluated. Structured as a pilot program, it aligns two federal priorities: the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan (NSW-SAP), which emphasizes improving national preparedness and resilience to space weather impacts, and the National Strategic Computing Initiative (NSCI) Update, which focuses on advancing the United States' capabilities in high-performance computing and next-generation scientific software. Taken together, the solicitation is looking for research efforts that do more than incrementally improve existing models; it is pushing for a transformation in the software and computational approaches used to predict space weather with defensible, quantified confidence.

At the center of the opportunity is the challenge of predictive modeling of the coupled Sun-Earth system. This includes the magnetized solar atmosphere and the solar wind, and how those solar outputs interact with the Earth's magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. The solicitation highlights that meaningful advances require treating these components as an interconnected physical system rather than as loosely linked parts. The program emphasizes predictive modeling that is data-driven, meaning it should leverage observations and measurements in a more direct, systematic way, and it places special weight on quantified uncertainties. In practical terms, NSF is encouraging proposals that can provide not just a forecast, but also a scientifically grounded estimate of how reliable that forecast is, which is essential for operational decision-making and risk management.

A major theme is determining the "necessary and sufficient" levels of model complexity, computational performance, and observational inputs. That framing signals that the program is not simply rewarding the most complex or most computationally expensive models. Instead, it is prioritizing research that clarifies tradeoffs: what level of physics detail is truly required to improve predictive skill, what computing strategies and software architectures are needed to run these models efficiently, and what observation types and data streams most strongly constrain model behavior. The pilot is therefore positioned at the intersection of space physics, applied mathematics and statistics for uncertainty quantification, scientific machine learning or data assimilation where appropriate, and advanced computational science for scalable performance.

From a funding and administrative standpoint, this is an NSF grant solicitation (Funding Opportunity Number 20-519) in the Science and Technology and other Research and Development category, with CFDA numbers listed as 43.001, 47.049, 47.050, and 47.070. The program anticipated making around eight awards, with an award ceiling of $3,000,000 per award. The opportunity was created on November 21, 2019, with an original closing date of March 20, 2020. Eligibility is not limited to a single standard applicant type and is broadly labeled as "Others," with the solicitation directing applicants to consult the additional eligibility language in the full announcement for specifics.

Overall, the solicitation is best understood as an effort to accelerate a new generation of space weather modeling capabilities by funding teams that can integrate physical understanding, observational data, and modern computing into robust predictive tools. Its long-term aim is to help move the field toward models that provide quantifiable predictive capability, meaning forecasts that can be validated, compared, and used with known levels of uncertainty, rather than relying on qualitative confidence or model-to-model disagreement as a proxy for reliability.

• The National Science Foundation in the science and technology and other research and development sector is offering a public funding opportunity titled "Next Generation Software for Data-driven Models of Space Weather with Quantified Uncertainties" and is now available to receive applicants.
• Interested and eligible applicants and submit their applications by referencing the CFDA number(s): 43.001, 47.049, 47.050, 47.070.
• This funding opportunity was created on Nov 21, 2019.
• Applicants must submit their applications by Mar 20, 2020. (Agency may still review applications by suitable applicants for the remaining/unused allocated funding in 2026.)
• Each selected applicant is eligible to receive up to $3,000,000.00 in funding.
• The number of recipients for this funding is limited to 8 candidate(s).
• Eligible applicants include: Others (see text field entitled Additional Information on Eligibility for clarification).

Apply for 20 519

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