Opportunity Information: Apply for 20 519
The National Science Foundation (NSF) grant opportunity titled "Next Generation Software for Data-driven Models of Space Weather with Quantified Uncertainties" is a discretionary research and development funding program aimed at modernizing how space weather prediction models are built, run, and evaluated. Structured as a pilot program, it aligns two federal priorities: the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan (NSW-SAP), which emphasizes improving national preparedness and resilience to space weather impacts, and the National Strategic Computing Initiative (NSCI) Update, which focuses on advancing the United States' capabilities in high-performance computing and next-generation scientific software. Taken together, the solicitation is looking for research efforts that do more than incrementally improve existing models; it is pushing for a transformation in the software and computational approaches used to predict space weather with defensible, quantified confidence.
At the center of the opportunity is the challenge of predictive modeling of the coupled Sun-Earth system. This includes the magnetized solar atmosphere and the solar wind, and how those solar outputs interact with the Earth's magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. The solicitation highlights that meaningful advances require treating these components as an interconnected physical system rather than as loosely linked parts. The program emphasizes predictive modeling that is data-driven, meaning it should leverage observations and measurements in a more direct, systematic way, and it places special weight on quantified uncertainties. In practical terms, NSF is encouraging proposals that can provide not just a forecast, but also a scientifically grounded estimate of how reliable that forecast is, which is essential for operational decision-making and risk management.
A major theme is determining the "necessary and sufficient" levels of model complexity, computational performance, and observational inputs. That framing signals that the program is not simply rewarding the most complex or most computationally expensive models. Instead, it is prioritizing research that clarifies tradeoffs: what level of physics detail is truly required to improve predictive skill, what computing strategies and software architectures are needed to run these models efficiently, and what observation types and data streams most strongly constrain model behavior. The pilot is therefore positioned at the intersection of space physics, applied mathematics and statistics for uncertainty quantification, scientific machine learning or data assimilation where appropriate, and advanced computational science for scalable performance.
From a funding and administrative standpoint, this is an NSF grant solicitation (Funding Opportunity Number 20-519) in the Science and Technology and other Research and Development category, with CFDA numbers listed as 43.001, 47.049, 47.050, and 47.070. The program anticipated making around eight awards, with an award ceiling of $3,000,000 per award. The opportunity was created on November 21, 2019, with an original closing date of March 20, 2020. Eligibility is not limited to a single standard applicant type and is broadly labeled as "Others," with the solicitation directing applicants to consult the additional eligibility language in the full announcement for specifics.
Overall, the solicitation is best understood as an effort to accelerate a new generation of space weather modeling capabilities by funding teams that can integrate physical understanding, observational data, and modern computing into robust predictive tools. Its long-term aim is to help move the field toward models that provide quantifiable predictive capability, meaning forecasts that can be validated, compared, and used with known levels of uncertainty, rather than relying on qualitative confidence or model-to-model disagreement as a proxy for reliability.Apply for 20 519
- The National Science Foundation in the science and technology and other research and development sector is offering a public funding opportunity titled "Next Generation Software for Data-driven Models of Space Weather with Quantified Uncertainties" and is now available to receive applicants.
- Interested and eligible applicants and submit their applications by referencing the CFDA number(s): 43.001, 47.049, 47.050, 47.070.
- This funding opportunity was created on Nov 21, 2019.
- Applicants must submit their applications by Mar 20, 2020. (Agency may still review applications by suitable applicants for the remaining/unused allocated funding in 2026.)
- Each selected applicant is eligible to receive up to $3,000,000.00 in funding.
- The number of recipients for this funding is limited to 8 candidate(s).
- Eligible applicants include: Others (see text field entitled Additional Information on Eligibility for clarification).
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is the title of this NSF grant opportunity?
The opportunity is titled "Next Generation Software for Data-driven Models of Space Weather with Quantified Uncertainties."
Which agency is offering this funding opportunity?
The funding opportunity is offered by the National Science Foundation (NSF).
What is the Funding Opportunity Number?
The Funding Opportunity Number is 20-519.
What type of program is this (research, operations, or something else)?
This is a discretionary research and development (R&D) funding program. It is structured as a pilot program focused on modernizing space weather prediction modeling software and computational approaches.
What is the main purpose of the solicitation?
The solicitation aims to accelerate a new generation of space weather modeling capabilities by funding research that modernizes how models are built, run, and evaluated. A central goal is to produce predictive tools that include defensible, quantified uncertainty estimates rather than providing forecasts without a scientifically grounded measure of reliability.
Which national priorities does this pilot program align with?
The pilot aligns with two federal priorities: the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan (NSW-SAP), which emphasizes national preparedness and resilience to space weather impacts, and the National Strategic Computing Initiative (NSCI) Update, which emphasizes advances in high-performance computing and next-generation scientific software.
What kinds of scientific systems are in scope for the modeling work?
The solicitation centers on predictive modeling of the coupled Sun-Earth system, including the magnetized solar atmosphere, the solar wind, and the interactions of those solar outputs with the Earth's magnetosphere and upper atmosphere.
Why does the solicitation emphasize a "coupled Sun-Earth system" approach?
It highlights that meaningful predictive advances require treating the Sun-Earth components as an interconnected physical system rather than as loosely linked parts, since the system is coupled across regions and processes.
What does "data-driven" mean in the context of this opportunity?
Within this solicitation, "data-driven" refers to predictive modeling that leverages observations and measurements in a more direct and systematic way, integrating observational inputs to better constrain model behavior and improve predictive skill.
What does "quantified uncertainties" mean for proposed forecasts?
It means proposals are encouraged to deliver not only a forecast, but also a scientifically grounded estimate of the forecast's reliability. The intent is to support operational decision-making and risk management with confidence levels that can be defended and evaluated.
Is the solicitation looking for incremental improvements to existing space weather models?
No. The solicitation explicitly pushes for research that goes beyond incremental improvements and instead supports a transformation in software and computational approaches used to predict space weather with quantified confidence.
Does the program prefer the most complex or computationally expensive models?
No. A major theme is identifying the "necessary and sufficient" levels of model complexity, computational performance, and observational inputs. The solicitation signals a focus on clarifying tradeoffs rather than simply maximizing complexity or compute usage.
What kinds of tradeoffs is the program trying to clarify?
It prioritizes research that clarifies: (1) what level of physics detail is actually required to improve predictive skill, (2) what computing strategies and software architectures are needed for efficient execution, and (3) which observation types and data streams most strongly constrain model behavior.
What disciplines or technical areas are implied by the solicitation?
The opportunity is positioned at the intersection of space physics, applied mathematics and statistics for uncertainty quantification, scientific machine learning or data assimilation (where appropriate), and advanced computational science for scalable performance.
How many awards does NSF anticipate making under this opportunity?
The solicitation anticipated making around eight awards.
What is the maximum award amount (award ceiling)?
The award ceiling is $3,000,000 per award.
What is the category of this funding opportunity?
The opportunity is listed in the Science and Technology and other Research and Development category.
What CFDA numbers are associated with this opportunity?
The CFDA numbers listed are 43.001, 47.049, 47.050, and 47.070.
When was this opportunity created?
The opportunity was created on November 21, 2019.
What was the original closing date for the solicitation?
The original closing date was March 20, 2020.
Who is eligible to apply?
Eligibility is broadly labeled as "Others" and is not limited to a single standard applicant type in the summary provided. The solicitation directs applicants to consult the additional eligibility language in the full announcement for specific eligibility requirements.
What does it mean that eligibility is labeled "Others"?
Based on the information provided, "Others" indicates the opportunity is not restricted to one common applicant category in the summary view. The detailed eligibility criteria are referenced as being in the full announcement.
What is the long-term aim of the solicitation?
The long-term aim is to move the field toward models that provide quantifiable predictive capability. That means forecasts can be validated, compared, and used with known levels of uncertainty rather than relying on qualitative confidence or model-to-model disagreement as a stand-in for reliability.
What is meant by "modernizing how models are built, run, and evaluated"?
In the context provided, it refers to improving the software and computational approaches behind space weather models, including how models are constructed, executed efficiently (potentially at high performance computing scale), and assessed in a way that supports quantified, defensible uncertainty and comparability across predictions.
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